Choose a candidate site
Your analysis will compare two sites, one in Warsaw and one in Czaplinek. Czaplinek is near Drawski Park Krajobrazowy (Drawski Landscape Park), a picturesque lake district, and is a popular tourist destination. If the Czaplinek site is chosen, the owner plans to partner with and promote local hotels. In return, the hotels will offer a curated selection of books in their gift shops and advertise the new bookstore.
The site in Warsaw is in a gentrifying neighborhood on the east side of the Wista River. Parking is limited, so most customers would walk or use public transit to reach the store. However, there are many high-density apartment complexes nearby, as well as other stores. If the Warsaw site is chosen, the owner plans to initially market the new bookstore to an area within a 15-minute walking distance.
The owner has provided you with the addresses of both sites and criteria to assess each market. Because the markets are so different demographically, the criteria differ for each market.
Download the data
First, you'll download a project package that contains the market areas.
- Go to the Analyze Bookstore Sites in Poland item on ArcGIS Online. Click Download.
- Start ArcGIS Pro. If prompted, sign in using your licensed ArcGIS or Enterprise account.
If you don't have ArcGIS Pro or an ArcGIS account, you can sign up for an ArcGIS free trial. If you are signing in to an Enterprise account, ensure that ArcGIS Pro is configured to use your organization's portal.
When you open ArcGIS Pro, you're given the option to create a project or open an existing one. If you've created a project before, you'll see a list of recent projects.
- Click Open another project.
- In the Open Project window, browse to and double-click the Analyze_Bookstore_Sites_in_Poland project package that you downloaded.
The project opens. It contains a map named Warsaw Site that shows a 15-minute walk time polygon based on the site address.
The project also contains tabs for the Czaplinek Site and the report that you'll create for the owner.
Analyze the Warsaw site
For the Warsaw site, the owner provided the following criteria:
- Per capita disposable income, multiplied by a count of people aged 15 or older
- Annual per capita expenditure on books, newspapers, and stationery, multiplied by a count of people aged 15 or older
You'll use the Enrich tool to add the necessary demographic data to the market area of the Warsaw site. This tool creates a series of polygons based on an area you define. Then, it determines demographic information for those polygons using the ArcGIS GeoEnrichment service. The GeoEnrichment service can be used for over 130 countries, some of which have thousands of demographic and consumer behavior variables for the most recently available annual estimates.
- On the ribbon, click the Analysis tab. In the Geoprocessing group, click Tools.
The Geoprocessing pane appears.
- In the Geoprocessing pane, search for Enrich. In the list of results, click Enrich (Analysis Tools).
The tool opens.
The Enrich tool consumes credits assigned to your ArcGIS account. In this lesson, you'll enrich two features with six fields, which will cost 0.12 credits. The ArcGIS Online Help topic Understand credits contains more information about credit usage.
- For Input Features, choose Warsaw Bookstore Site.
Next, you'll change the demographic data source from the default source to a source that specializes in Polish data.
- Click the Environments tab and click the Browse button.
The Business Analyst Data Source window appears.
- Under Portal, click Europe. Scroll through the list of folders, click Poland, and click OK.
The data source is updated. Next, you'll choose several demographic and consumer behavior variables that match the criteria for selecting the best site.
- Click the Parameters tab. For Variables, click the plus button.
The Add Variable window appears. This window contains a large number of demographic variables that you can choose. The first criterion involves per capita disposable income (income after taxes and social contributions, including received transfer payments).
You'll measure this criterion with purchasing power, which refers to the disposable income of an area's population. Purchasing power consists of net incomes from employment and assets (after taxes and social contributions), pensions, unemployment benefits, benefit payments, and other national transfer payments.
- In the search bar, type Purchasing and press Enter. In the list of results, check 2017 Purchasing Power: Total and 2017 Purchasing Power: Per Capita.
Demographic data is updated periodically. Feel free to choose more recent demographic data if it is available.
MBR stands for Michael Bauer Research GmbH, an Esri business partner that provides demographic and consumer expenditure variables for Poland and other countries.
The second criterion involves per capita spending on books, newspapers, and stationery.
- Clear the search text and search for Books. Check 2017 Books & Stationery: Total and 2017 Books and Stationery: Per Capita.
The criteria will be considered for the population aged 15 or older. You'll add variables for the total population and the population aged 0 through 14 so you can calculate this group.
- In the left pane, under Poland, click Categories. In the list of categories, double-click Age.
- Double-click 15 Year Age Increments. Under 2017 Population Totals (MBR), check 2017 Total Population Age 0-14.
- In the left pane, click Categories. Double-click Population, double-click Common Population Variables, and check 2017 Total Population.
You've chosen a total of six variables. The number of chosen variables is displayed under the search bar.
- Click OK. In the Geoprocessing pane, click Run.
The tool runs and the WarsawBookstoreSite_Enrich layer is added to the map. The enriched data variables are included in the layer's attribute table.
- In the Contents pane, right-click the WarsawBookstoreSite_Enrich layer and choose Attribute Table.
The table opens. In addition to the six fields added by the Enrich tool, the table includes an aggregationMethod field.
You can expand the size of any field in the table by dragging the rightmost border of the field name.
The aggregation method is listed as BlockApportionment:PL.Postcodes5. Block apportionment is a method of determining how many people live within a polygon (in this case, the 15-minute walk time area). PL is an abbreviation for Poland, and Postcodes5 refers to the geographic boundaries used as the basis for the block apportionment process. In this case, the areas are five-digit postal codes, which are the best available areas for Poland.
In all countries except the United States and Canada, the GeoEnrichment service produces settlement points that provide the likelihood of people living in a given location, based on a Landsat model. The service then combines these settlement points with the geographic boundaries to create a population-weighted apportionment of the variables selected in the Enrich tool.
The smallest area that can be GeoEnriched depends on the country and whether the area is urban or rural. A 2-mile-diameter area in urban settings will usually produce statistically valid results in most countries. The Warsaw market area is slightly larger than this recommended minimum size, but an area of this size may not be appropriate for a rural area. You can learn more about apportionment reliability on the documentation page.
Next, you'll add a new field and estimate expenditure on books for people 15 or older. This field will represent potential book revenue based on the owner's criteria.
- In the attribute table, click the Add Field button.
The Fields: WarsawBookstoreSite_Enrich view appears. A new field is added to the bottom of the list of fields, with editable cells for information.
- In the new field, for Field Name, type P_revBooks. For Alias, type Potential Book Revenue. For Data Type, choose Double.
- Double-click the Number Format cell and click the Determine display formatting for numeric data types button. In the Number Format window, for Category, choose Currency and click OK.
- On the ribbon, in the Fields tab, in the Changes group, click Save.
The field is saved. Next, you'll create an expression to calculate it.
- Close the Fields: WarsawBookstoreSite_Enrich view. In the attribute table, scroll to the right until you can see the Potential Book Revenue field. Right-click the field heading and choose Calculate Field.
The Geoprocessing pane appears, displaying the Calculate Field tool. You'll calculate the field using an expression that subtracts population aged 0 through 14 from the total population, and then multiplies the result by per capita spending on books.
- In the Geoprocessing pane, for P_revBooks =, copy and paste the following formula:
(!populationtotals_totpop_cy! - !F15yearincrements_page01_cy!) * !spending_cspc17_cy!
- Click Run.
The tool runs and the field is calculated. If you are using 2017 data, the potential book revenue is estimated as 14,640,541.96. With more recent data, the value may differ.
Because the field category is set to Currency, the potential book revenue is shown in the default currency of your version of the software. The value is actually in the Polish złoty, displayed with the sign zł.
- Close the attribute table.
Analyze the Czaplinek site
For the Czaplinek site, the owner provided the following criteria:
- Per capita disposable income, multiplied by 2 percent of the count of people aged 15 or older
- Annual per capita expenditure on books, newspapers, and stationery, multiplied by 2 percent of the count of people aged 15 or older
The 2 percent value is based on the owner's research, which indicates that 1 in 50 households in northwest Poland spends at least one day in the Drawski region, where Czaplinek is located, each year. You'll enrich the Czaplinek market area with relevant variables and calculate potential revenue based on the owner's criteria.
- Click the Czaplinek Site map tab.
The market area of this site is a 150-kilometer driving distance polygon created based on the location of the Czaplinek site. Because Czaplinek is a tourist destination, its market area is much different than the Warsaw site, which would be focused on local customers.
To run the Enrich tool again with the same parameters, you'll open your geoprocessing tool history.
- On the ribbon, click the Analysis tab. In the Geoprocessing group, click the History button.
This project's geoprocessing history contains two tools, the Calculate Field tool and the Enrich tool.
- Double-click Enrich.
The Geoprocessing pane appears, displaying the Enrich tool. All of the parameters are identical to those that you set the first time you ran the tool, including the variables for enrichment. The only parameters you'll change are in the input features and the output name.
- For Input Features, choose Czaplinek Bookstore Site. For Output feature class, change the output name to CzaplinekBookstoreSite_Enrich.
- Click Run.
The tool runs and the CzaplinekBookstoreSite_Enrich layer is added to the map.
- In the Contents pane, right-click the CzaplinekBookstoreSite_Enrich layer and choose Attribute Table.
The aggregation method for this GeoEnrichment is CentroidsInPolygon:PL.Subdistricts. Because the area is much larger than the Warsaw market area, the method and the geographic boundaries are different. Subdistricts are a larger set of boundaries than five-digit postal codes. The GeoEnrichment server uses their centroids instead of the more detailed settlement points as the basis for apportionment.
There are far more postal code areas in the Czaplinek area than the Warsaw area, so the time it would take to aggregate by postal code would be much higher. For a large area, using subdistrict centroids and boundaries instead of settlement points and postal code boundaries produces a result that is only slightly less reliable (usually less than a 0.25 percent difference).
Like with the Warsaw area, you'll add and calculate a new field that estimates expenditure on books for people aged 15 or older. Based on the owner's criteria, you'll multiply the result by 0.02 to represent the percentage of population that will be within the region over the course of a year.
- In the attribute table, click the Add Field button. In the Fields: CzaplinekBookstoreSite_Enrich view, create a field with the following parameters:
- For Field Name, type P_revBooks.
- For Alias, type Potential Book Revenue.
- For Data Type, choose Double.
- For Number Format, set Category to Currency.
- On the Fields tab, in the Changes group, click Save. Close the Fields: CzaplinekBookstoreSite_Enrich view.
- In the attribute table, scroll until you can see the Potential Book Revenue tab. Right-click the field heading and choose Calculate Field.
- In the Geoprocessing pane, for P_revBooks =, copy and paste the following formula:
(!populationtotals_totpop_cy! - !F15yearincrements_page01_cy! ) * !spending_cspc17_cy! * 0.02
- Click Run.
The field is calculated. If you are using 2017 data, the result value is 24,717,215.27.
- Close the attribute table. On the Quick Access Toolbar, click the Save button.
Update the report
The project package includes a layout for a report on the candidate sites. Next, you'll update the report layout so you can communicate your findings to the owner.
- In the Czaplinek Site map, turn off the CzaplinekBookstoreSite_Enrich layer.
- In the Warsaw Site map, turn off the WarsawBookstoreSite_Enrich layer.
First, you'll copy the Warsaw site's potential book revenue into the report.
- Open the attribute table for the WarsawBookstoreSite_Enrich layer. Right-click the cell with the potential book revenue value and choose Copy.
- Above the map, click the Report tab. For Warsaw Site, for Site Total Annual Potential Revenue, double-click 10,000,000 to make it editable.
- Replace the text with the number you copied. If necessary, remove your currency symbol so that only the zł symbol remains.
- In the attribute table, copy the value for 2017 Books & Stationery: Per Capita. In the report, for Warsaw Site, replace the default value for Annual per Capita Spending on Books & Stationery with the value you copied.
For population 15 or over, you'll need to use two values in the attribute table.
- Subtract the 2017 Total Population Age 0-14 value from the 2017 Total Population value. In the report, for Warsaw Site, replace the default value for Population Age 15+ with the result.
- Close the attribute table. In the Czaplinek Site map, open the attribute table for the CzaplinekBookstoreSite_Enrich layer.
For the Czaplinek site, you'll need to multiply the population by 2 percent.
- Subtract the 2017 Total Population Age 0-14 value from the 2017 Total Population value and multiply the result by 0.02 (round the result to the nearest integer). In the report, for Czaplinek Site, replace the default value for 2% of Population Age 15+ with the result.
- Replace the remaining two Czaplinek Site values with the corresponding values in the attribute table. When finished, close the attribute table.
The report indicates that a larger number of people will visit Czaplinek compared to those who live near the Warsaw site. Because of this difference, the Czaplinek site has a higher predicted revenue.
You'll finish the report by adding the source for the information used to evaluate the sites.
You can find the source for all demographic data used by Esri services on the Esri Demographics documentation page. To find a specific data source, click the Data tab and navigate to the appropriate section based on the data's geography. For instance, to find the source of the data used in this lesson, you would expand the Global section, click Europe, and scroll to Poland. Then, download the Release Notes PDF file. Page 2 of the PDF file lists the data source.
- At the bottom of the report, double-click Source to make the text box editable. After the word Source, paste the following source:
© Michael Bauer Research GmbH 2017 based on © Central Statistical Office, Eurostat.
- Click anywhere outside of the report to deselect the text box.
- Save the project.
In this lesson, you enriched market areas for two candidate locations for a new bookstore in Poland. You analyzed each location using the bookstore owner's criteria to estimate the total revenue at each location. Then, you added the relevant information to a report to show the owner. Based on your information, the owner feels confident about making a decision.
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