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Apply temporal analysis

In the previous lesson, you analyzed spatial patterns in the rocket launch data. In this lesson, you'll analyze temporal patterns. First, you'll configure the time slider and analyze the rocket launch times of the Green and Yellow networks. You'll also edit the attribute table after receiving new information about the rocket attack and identify the insurgent networks associated with the launch points.

Configure the time slider

First, you'll configure the time slider to illustrate rocket launch times among the Green and Yellow networks.

  1. If necessary, open your FOB Rookie project in ArcGIS Pro.
  2. In the Contents pane, right-click the RocketsLaunch layer and choose Properties.
  3. In the Layer Properties window, click the Time tab.
  4. For Layer Time, choose Each feature has a single time field. Ensure that Time Field is set to Pacific_Standard_Time.

    Layer Time parameter

    This setting is for features with time stamps stored in a single attribute field. You created an attribute field with time stamps previously.

    The default settings for time properties are fine for this analysis. The Time Field setting defaults to the first field in the table that is formatted as a date: Pacific Standard Time. Because the table has both local and coordinated universal time, you'll be able to perform analysis using local time while having the UTC information necessary for standardized reports.

    The Time Extent setting updated to reflect the date range from the values in the RocketsLaunch layer: 1/1/2015 1:00:00 AM to 3/31/2015 5:00:00 AM.

  5. Click OK.

    The time slider appears at the top of the map. When you point to it, the slider displays the date range, buttons, and a solid line indicating when the data is visible on the time slider. The Map contextual tab appears on the ribbon with an associated Time tab, which contains tools specific to the time slider. You'll first watch the launch times as they appear so you can detect rocket-firing patterns among the Green and Yellow networks.

  6. On the ribbon, click the Time tab.

    Time tab

    You have multiple ways to set the start and end times in the Current Time group. You want the time slider to consider all the IDF events from the table. The Full Extent group on the Time tab displays the start and end time for all time enabled data, so you can copy the information from there.

  7. Use the keyboard shortcuts of Ctrl+C and Ctrl+V to copy the Start time from the Full Extent group and paste it into the Start time in the Current Time group.

    Start parameter

  8. Copy the End time from the Full Extent group and paste it into the End time in the Current Time group. Click Enter to calculate the days between the start and end times.

    Start and End parameters

    The Span box shows almost 90 days, which is the time you want to display in the time slider to see when, and on which days, the Green and Yellow networks were launching rockets. Next, you'll arrange the time slider so new data appears in 24-hour increments.

  9. In the Step group, uncheck the Use Time Span box.
  10. Next to Step Interval, type 1 in the first box.
  11. If necessary, in the adjoining box, choose Days.

    Step Interval parameter

  12. In the Full Extent group, click the drop-down arrow and choose the RocketsLaunch layer.

    Full Extent layer parameter

    Now, only data reflecting rocket launches will appear as the time slider progresses through the steps.

  13. On the time slider, click the Play button.

    Time Slider Play button

    As time passes, note the hours and days as launch times are added to the map (some days will pass without any new events added). You can pause the time slider, as well as click the Back and Forward buttons, at any time while it plays.

    With each step representing a 24-hour period, many of the launch points appeared simultaneously. These one-day step intervals are too general for your analysis. You'll divide your step intervals into two-hour blocks so the launch times appear at different intervals, allowing you to identify the time of day (morning twilight, day, evening twilight, night) when rockets were fired. The timing of these rocket launches is critical for your analysis because they could allow you to detect behavioral differences between the Green and Yellow networks. Review the Green and Yellow networks, as well as the Moon Illumination entry, in your FOB Rookie Working Aid.

  14. On the Time tab, in the Step group, change Step Interval to 2 Hours.

    Step Interval parameter


    Changing a 24-hour time period into two-hour blocks will slow the time slider considerably. The time slider will now take several minutes to complete. In the Playback group, you can adjust the speed of the time slider from Slower to Faster to compensate.

    Playback Speed parameter

  15. On the Time Slider window, click the Play button.

    As the launch events become visible in two-hour steps, note the times of day and how they correspond to the Moon Illumination chart in the FOB Rookie Working Aid. Note the patterns of the launch locations. Also notice how the Yellow network tends to fire rockets during evening twilight or after dusk and the Green network tends to fire rockets before dawn or during morning twilight.

  16. After the time slider has finished, click the red point feature to the northeast of FOB Rookie to view its pop-up.

    This feature was the last firing event to appear on the time slider. The time of the launch—in this case, 4:00 a.m. local time or 11:00 a.m. UTC—indicates this rocket launch is likely associated with the Green network, which favors predawn and morning twilight launches. If it were part of the Yellow network, it would have been fired several hours earlier.

    Launch sites map

    Notice how the Green network, more so than the Yellow network, tends to concentrate its firing in spatial clusters. This means the Green network has inadvertently telegraphed the location of its next rocket launch at FOB Rookie, because the red dot suggests it's the first of several launches from that general area.

  17. Close the pop-up.
  18. Click the red dot to the southwest of FOB Rookie and open its pop-up.

    Launch site pop-up

    This pop-up shows a 12:30 a.m. firing (listed as 00:30 AM local time in the table), and considering its location is near Yellow network launch points, it's likely that red point feature is actually part of the Yellow network. Further, that feature is well inside the 107mm rocket range ring, so it's likely a 107mm rocket.

  19. Close the pop-up.

In total, from the results of your analysis, working aid, geoprocessing tools, and time slider, you can now conclude the following:

  • The Yellow and Green networks both fire 107mm and 122mm rockets, but the Yellow network tends to stay close to Marina, while the Green network stays close to Salinas.
  • Rockets fired inside the first buffer are generally 107mm, and those fired within the second buffer are 122mm.
  • The Green network tends to fire rockets from the same area on successive nights, while the Yellow network tends to scatter its launch locations on successive nights.
  • The Yellow network fires after dark, while the Green network fires before dawn.
  • The Green and Yellow networks, while firing at night, tend to be inactive when moonlight is at less than 75 percent illumination and active with more than 75 percent illumination.
  • The circled red dot northeast of FOB Rookie was the firing location of the lethal 4:00 a.m. rocket.
  • Based on the location of that firing point, the fired rocket was most likely 107mm.

Your mission is to produce detailed predictions to prevent future attacks. That means you need to accurately assess the time and place of the next launch. But at this point, you still need confirmation about which network fired the lethal rocket. That information would, combined with the conclusions above, allow you to provide actionable intelligence to your commander.

Edit the attribute table

The attribute table still contains empty fields for the rocket attacks this morning. You'll edit the table to represent your analysis reflecting their network associations. By updating the stand-alone table, you'll also update all the layers on the map that were created using this table. The values you'll add are the missing weapon type and the networks associated with the rocket attacks at 00:30 a.m. and 4:00 a.m. Your intelligence officer informs you that the missile fired at 4:00 a.m. was a 107mm rocket, confirming the conclusion you reached with the help of the Multiple Ring Buffer tool. The officer does not know which network fired the missile.

  1. In the Contents pane, open the RocketsLaunch table.
  2. On the Map tab, in the Selection group, click Select By Attributes.
  3. In the Geoprocessing pane, in the Select Layer by Attribute tool, verify that Input Rows is set to RocketLaunch. Click Add Clause.
  4. Build the expression Weapon is Equal to ‹empty field›.

    Select by Weapon expression

  5. Click Enter.
  6. Click Run.
  7. At the bottom of the table, click the Show selected records button.

    Now that you've isolated the two records to update, you'll edit the table.

  8. Scroll to the right of the table until you see the Weapon and Network columns.
  9. In the Weapon column, double-click the empty table cell in the first row (the 12:30 a.m. rocket) to edit it.
  10. Type 107mm and press Tab.
  11. In the Network column, type Yellow and press Enter.
  12. Edit the field values for the 2015/03/31 04:00:00 to show 107mm as the weapon and Green as the network.

    Edit field values

  13. On the Edit tab, in the Manage Edits group, click Save.
  14. In the Save Edits window, click Yes to save all edits.

    New yellow and green features

    The 4:00 a.m. launch location turns green, which reflects its association with the Green network. Clicking its pop-up reflects its newly identified Green network association. The 12:30 a.m. launch location turns yellow, reflecting the Yellow network.

  15. In the table, click the Clear Selection button.
  16. Click the Show all records button and close the table.
  17. Save the project.

Identify insurgent launch locations

At this point, you're concerned with the 4:00 a.m. rocket because the Green network has found a location to launch successful attacks against FOB Rookie. You want to focus on the location for its next launch.

Now that you know that the Green network fired the 4:00 a.m. rocket, and you've become familiar with their typical launch times, you'll confirm their behavioral patterns to determine the likely location of that network's next launch. You'll update the time slider to show only the Green network's launch times so you can identify its launch patterns.

  1. Open the attribute table for the RocketsLaunch layer.
  2. On the Map tab, in the Selection group, click Select By Attributes.
  3. In the Geoprocessing pane, in the Select Layer By Attribute tool, click Add Clause.
  4. Build the expression Network is Equal to Green and click Enter.
  5. Click Run.

    Verify that 31 features are selected on the map. The bottom of the RocketsLaunch table indicates you've isolated 31 events associated with the Green network data. Next, you'll export this selection as a new feature class so the Green network can have its own attribute table to be used in the time slider.

  6. Right-click the RocketsLaunch layer, point to Data, and choose Export Features.

    The Geoprocessing pane opens to the Copy Features tool.

  7. In the Copy Features parameters, for Output Feature Class, change the name to RocketsGreenNetwork.

    Output Feature Class name

  8. Click Run.

    When the tool is finished, a new RocketsGreenNetwork layer is added to your map.

  9. Close the RocketsLaunch table.
  10. Uncheck the RocketsLaunch layer.

    The color of your Green network point features may have changed. If so, change the color of the RocketsGreenNetwork by right-clicking the point feature in the Contents pane and choosing green.

    Green network rocket launches

    You've isolated the data that represents the attacks by the Green network. You'll update the time slider to use this data so you can confirm the likely location of the next rocket attack from the Green network.

  11. Right-click the RocketsGreenNetwork layer and choose Properties.
  12. If necessary, click the Time tab.
  13. For Layer Time, choose Each feature has a single time field. Ensure that Time Field is set to Pacific Standard Time.
  14. Click OK.

    You've already established the network, so you no longer need the two-hour intervals. The time slider is still configured with the correct start and end times, so the only part you'll change is the step interval.

  15. On the Time tab, in the Step group, change the Step Interval setting to 1 Days.

    Step Interval parameter

  16. On the Time Slider window, click Play.

    As Green network launch locations appear, note that its launch teams typically fire in clusters—a behavioral trait that suggests future launch locations once the initial firing point is revealed. The most recent missile attack is not part of any existing cluster, so it's likely that the next attack will be launched from a location near it.

    Launch patterns

    So far in this lesson, you used the time slider to discover that the Green network was responsible for the deadly missile attack on FOB Rookie at 4:00 a.m. Through observation, you learned that the Green network, during periods when the moonlight is at more than 75 percent illumination, fires rockets from the same location on successive nights.

  17. Save the project.

    If you want to delete a project, you must delete it using a file manager. (The default storage for ArcGIS Pro projects is C:\Users\YourFolder\My Documents\ArcGIS\Projects.) If you want to delete a project, browse to your project and delete the file. Then, on the ArcGIS project page, click the deleted project and click Yes on the Project not found window.

    Project not found window

Identify actionable intelligence

Now you'll review two reports with critical information relating to this lesson that a commander could convert into actionable intelligence. One is presented in the form of a PowerPoint slide and the second is a Story Map Journal web app.

Actionable intelligence is specific and credible information commanders can exploit for immediate and proactive battlefield use. Speed is key because battlefields change rapidly and knowledge about them has a short life-span. Actionable intelligence often includes who, what, when, where, and how—in addition to a confident prediction based on solid research. Because speed is key, you will likely have lingering questions about the accuracy of the information you’re reporting. And that’s fine, because seldom are all doubts ever erased while producing actionable intelligence.

PowerPoint is one method for communicating intelligence information quickly.

  1. Open the Actionable Intelligence PowerPoint PDF file that you downloaded earlier in the lesson to view an example of actionable intelligence relating to this lesson.

    PowerPoint presentations are static; in other words, what you see is what you get.

  2. Open the Actionable Intelligence story map, which has four panels that walk you through the analysis leading to the location of the next rocket attack.

    A Story Map Journal web mapping application lets you quickly combine narrative text with maps and other embedded content. With Story Map Journal, you can scroll through the story, view videos, or zoom in to a particular map. You can also click pop-up boxes for more information about each feature.

Congratulations! Through your analysis, as well as several hours of your time, you have completed the Actionable Intelligence tutorial.

In this project, you created a new map and tailored it to the Military Grid Reference System. You converted a Microsoft Excel spreadsheet to a table and used its geospatial data to symbolize insurgent activity in the Monterey area. You converted informal time fields into time stamps, enabling you to synchronize your time with the Pacific Time Zone and coordinated universal time. You ran the Multiple Ring Buffer tool to identify areas of insurgent rockets. You used the time slider to visualize the launch times and patterns of insurgent networks firing rockets at coalition forces. Finally, you identified critical information a commander would need for actionable intelligence.

This lesson replicates an insurgent scenario, where one or more rockets are often fired from a single location. In a more conventional war, enemy indirect fire would represent coordinated firing from multiple points. For that, ArcGIS for Defense offers the Point of Origin Detection geoprocessing tool. (You'll need an Esri Account to access the downloadable file.)